Sophisticated Wild Guessing

Ever wonder why people take things at face value? Why people just accept information as 'gospel', especially if it is presented from a seemingly reliable source!

I love working with data. As part of my work I teach engineers how to use statistics to make educated decisions in improving their designs / processes. However, it never fails to amaze me that many of these highly intelligent individuals would prefer to stay within their own 'comfort zone' of existing knowledge rather than explore / question the status quo, to determine if there is a better way to do their job to improve the business.

In the industry I work in we deal with highly complex manufacturing processes. Having practiced and taught Process Improvement methodologies for nearly 25 years and for as long as I can remember I have always asked this question in my training classes "How did you learn to do your job?" The replies are always "Somebody showed me!" or "I read a manual". Then I ask if they had ever questioned the accuracy or the validity of the information given to them, and 99% of the time the answer is NO.

The primary reason for this answer, was that they believe the information they had been given would be accurate. They have a belief that the information / knowledge would have been validated / tested over many years (that is usually the tribal knowledge of the business).

I would like to offer another reason for this lack of questioning the status quo, is down to the fact that most people never use data to prove or disprove their decisions. I call it the SWG system of decision making. Sophisticated Wild Guessing (SWG). Just watch this wonderful system in full operation at any meeting you attend. Decision usually made by the person with the most forceful personality / loudest voice, or the Frank Sinatra type bosses "You'll do it my way". But introduce some reliable data into the equation then the decisions can be made by facts not guesswork.

Key words in the last sentence are 'reliable data'. The abuse of data analysis is alarming and the way data is presented as fact on our television screens is in many ways a disgrace. I will talk about this abuse over my next few postings.